Energy's Digital Future

February 1, 2021
Oil has dominated the global energy system for more than a century, but the world is changing, according to this thoughtful analysis of the current state of affairs. For decades, America's extractive techniques have silenced Cassandras who claimed that oil was running out, but digital technology and the increasingly vocal campaigns against climate change may be delivering the kiss of death to the fossil-fuel industry. "Geography was destiny in the oil age," writes Jaffe, the managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts. However, the control of natural resources will eventually yield to "domination of patents, technology, and skilled workforces." In the 20th century, the success of the U.S. owed much to domestic reserves and a huge Navy to ensure access to foreign resources. Today, nations dependent on large oil fields (Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia) are already suffering, and Jaffe shows how the future belongs to nations that can switch gears. American technology still rules, but it's becoming a crowded field. The author casts an expert eye on competing national systems; evaluates their problems, political as well as technical; and concludes with advice for U.S. leaders, which will strike most readers as reasonable but will require a significant amount of imagination and courage. Jaffe sagely devotes much attention to China. With a much larger population and leaders who vow to spend whatever is necessary to lead the world in clean energy and digital technology, China is "more willing to try things and to provide state support for pie-in-the-sky innovation." Americans tend to believe, incorrectly, that the free market drives technological change. What would have happened, Jaffe asks, if America "had failed to rally to the national challenge of the race to the moon versus the Soviet Union because it was expensive and required" taxes and significant public investment? If the U.S. decides not to face the current threat, writes the author, other countries will. A knowledgeable, hard-nosed look at a post-oil future.

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